A recent Chinese review of preexisting medical data has highlighted that cancer cases in the country will continue to rise in the coming decades, driven by population aging and improved diagnosis, domestic media reported July 8. 

The review traces China’s national cancer burden and control efforts from the 1950s onward and draws on the latest epidemiological data. Conducted by researchers from the National Cancer Center in Beijing and the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University in the northeastern Liaoning province, it was published in the prestigious journal Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology on June 19.

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in China, accounting for about a quarter of all deaths in 2024. From 2010 to 2024, the number of new cancer diagnoses rose from roughly 3 million to 5 million, while cancer-related deaths increased from just under 2 million to over 2.5 million. 

Citing previous trend analyses, the researchers forecast that annual new cancer diagnoses could reach 8 million to 10 million by 2050, with cancer-related deaths rising to between 3.2 million and 4 million. 

The rise is “closely related to” China’s rapidly aging population, the researchers added. China currently has the world’s largest elderly population, with about 323 million people aged 60 and above in 2025, or 23% of its total population.

China’s changing cancer patterns are reshaping the global cancer burden, the researchers said. China accounts for nearly 17% of the world’s population but accounted for about a quarter of global cancer cases and deaths in 2022.

The incidence and prevalence of different types of cancer in China have shifted over the past decades. Cancers more commonly found in high-income countries, including lung, colorectal, prostate, thyroid, breast, and cervical cancers, have risen rapidly in China, while the incidence of historically prevalent cancers, such as esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers, has declined.

According to 2024 data, lung cancer was the most common cancer by incidence in China, with about 1.18 million new cases and more than 740,000 deaths that year, followed by thyroid, colorectal, breast, and liver cancers, each with more than 120,000 new cases annually. The top five most fatal cancers in China were lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal, each causing more than 50,000 deaths annually.

The data also showed significant variation between sexes, indicating the need for differentiated prevention and treatment, the review said. Among men, the five most common cancers were lung, colorectal, liver, stomach, and prostate cancers, while among women, they were lung, thyroid, breast, colorectal, and cervical cancers.

The review added that the five-year relative survival rate for patients diagnosed between 2015 and 2021 was 70% in the United States, compared with roughly 44% for those diagnosed in China between 2019 and 2021. The gap was particularly large for breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers.

Since 1986, China has introduced a series of national cancer control plans, conducted three nationwide cancer surveys, established cancer registries to monitor epidemiological trends, and rolled out multiple programs for cancer prevention, screening, and treatment.

In 2023, authorities set a target of raising the five-year relative cancer survival rate to 46.6% by 2030, while strengthening risk-factor control, screening, early diagnosis and treatment, standardized care, and cancer treatment capacity.

An expanding national health insurance drug list has also improved access to cancer treatment. Since 2018, more than 100 oncology drugs have been added to the reimbursement list. That push has in part been attributed to the release of the domestically acclaimed movie “Dying to Survive” the same year, in which a man is detained for smuggling cancer drugs from India into China. The film shed light on the extent to which people were willing to go to access cheaper medication.

In 2025, China also added 14 cancer drugs, some of which carry market prices of up to 1 million yuan ($147,000), to its high-cost innovative medicine catalog, asking private insurers to cover costs.

The review highlighted how early detection is critical to curbing China’s growing cancer burden. While China has expanded nationwide cancer screening, many patients are still only diagnosed after their cancer has progressed.

The authors of the review also stressed the importance of prevention, citing previous research estimating that nearly half of cancer deaths in China in 2014 were attributable to modifiable risk factors, including smoking, obesity, unhealthy diets, and infections.

Editor: Marianne Gunnarsson.

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