The plummeting price of premium Chilean cherries in China has taken many shoppers by surprise, with 500 grams costing just over 30 yuan ($4.50) in warehouse retail chain Sam’s Club this month, down 70% from November.

It’s all the talk on social media — so much so that some netizens suspect it’s a clever marketing gimmick by fruit stores. “Maybe making the low price a trending topic is just a way to offload unsold stock,” wrote one.

Yet, the real surprise might be that the price drop has become a predictable annual trend, according to data from the vast Jiangnan Wholesale Market in Guangzhou, capital of the southern Guangdong province. There, prices of imported Chilean cherries have fallen 70% to 80% between November and January without fail for the past three years.

So why does it happen?

After harvesting, the first batches of Chilean cherries are shipped to China by air, the fastest and most costly freight transportation.

When 7.7 tons were flown to China in October, the average Free on Board (FOB) export price — the total cost of goods for an international buyer — was $13.2 per kilogram, according to Chile’s National Customs Service. This is roughly double the average FOB price of the cherries shipped by sea in November.

To reach tables in China, Chilean cherries need to travel more than 19,000 kilometers, and for a long time, air freight was the only viable option. However, with the widespread application of cold chain technology, maritime transportation has become dominant in recent years. In December, Chile exported about 237,000 tons of cherries to China, with 227,000 tons traveling by sea.

Cherry exports from Chile’s 2025–26 harvest season could reach up to 550,000 tons (110 million five-kilogram boxes), according to forecasts by the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association, or ASOEX. Andrés Gebauer Millas, commercial counselor at the Chilean embassy in Beijing, said in December that “more than 90%” will be shipped to the Chinese market.

Production volume is a direct driver of cherry prices. When a warm winter in Chile led to reduced flowering and a much lower yield in 2023, the supply shock caused wholesale prices at the Jiangnan market to jump above 150 yuan per 500 grams, with prices stabilizing around 35 yuan by mid-January.

However, ASOEX predicts that total supply from the current season could decrease by 12.1% compared with 2024–25. But if supply is down, why are prices falling?

Hai Ya, an employee at fresh food retailer Benlai Life, told Chinese financial outlet Yicai that wholesale prices of cherries in December were 15% to 25% lower than in the same period in 2024. The retail price also dropped year on year by a slightly smaller margin.

Climate is key to this decline. This winter, warmer temperatures in Chile resulted in the harvest season beginning seven to 10 days earlier than usual. This effectively shifted the entire wholesale price curve to the left by at least a week compared with the previous winter. Consequently, when comparing the same calendar dates, prices appear lower now simply because the annual price drop cycle began earlier.

It’s not just cherries that experience such pricing patterns — most seasonal fruits are expensive when they are first available and then steadily become cheaper.

For example, in late November, a 300-gram box of Hongyan strawberries from Dandong, in the northeastern Liaoning province, cost 39.9 yuan on Freshippo, the online retail platform for groceries. This month, the price was just 19.9 yuan.

Domestically grown blueberries and peaches show a similar L-shaped price curve, while fruits in limited supply — such as Thai durians and 8424 watermelons, aka the “king of watermelon” — tend to follow a U-shaped price trajectory. Their wholesale prices also fluctuate; typically high at the start and end of their season, with a dip in the middle.

Some fruits are not subject to these annual cycles, however. For example, 500 grams of Shine Muscat grape — the so-called “Hermès of grapes” — would have cost as much as 300 yuan in the mid-2010s, but today they can be purchased for less than 10 yuan due to their broader availability.

Liu Wei, head of the National Technology System for Grape Industry hub in Chengdu, capital of the southwestern Sichuan province, explains that the total cultivation area for Shine Muscat grapes in China has increased from about 10,000 hectares to 100,000 hectares in the past decade.

It’s a similar story for blueberries, avocados, and Fuji apples. The latter was considered a luxury in the 1980s, but widespread introduction, cultivation, and varietal improvement have since made it an affordable, everyday fruit.

Given the immense popularity of cherries in China, some have asked why the country doesn’t scale up domestic production to drive down prices, as it did with Shine Muscat grapes.

The answer lies in cultivation limitations and the counter-seasonal advantage. Although cherries have been grown in Yantai, in the eastern Shandong province, since 1871, they have specific temperature, sunlight, and soil requirements. This limits their cultivation to a few suitable regions, primarily in Shandong and Liaoning. As a result, domestic production volume is far from sufficient to meet the large market demand.

The harvest season for domestic cherries is also mainly in May and June, while Chilean cherries can dominate the supermarket shelves during the Chinese New Year holiday because they are made available in large quantities in the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.

Reported by Chen Liangxian.

A version of this article originally appeared in The Paper. It has been translated and edited for brevity and clarity, and is republished here with permission.

Translator: Chen Yue; graphic designers: Wang Yasai and Fu Xiaofan; editors: Wang Juyi and Hao Qibao.

(Header image: Visuals from CSA Images and 500px Plus/VCG, reedited by Sixth Tone)